New Print Edition: 2006 Gubernatorial Outlook

March 10, 2006 · 2:07 PM EST
The new March 10, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

2006 Gubernatorial Outlook

The mood nationally is shifting toward change, and Republicans are playing defense in governorships this cycle, along with their majorities in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. The GOP comes into the year with a 28-22 advantage, but should be happy to walk away from the cycle with a 25-25 split. Democrats still remember 1994 when they went from 29 governorships to 19.

Republicans are not only defending more seats (22-14), but in states like New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio, they have been in power for over a decade and voters appear to be ready to make a change. The Republicans’ only hope is that the Democratic governors in the upper Midwest continue to struggle. But right now, Democrats are positioned to net between 4-6 governorships.

Three GOP-held seats moved to more vulnerable categories while two moved down. Two Democratic incumbents moved to a more vulnerable category and one moved back. For rankings of all 36 governorships this cycle, recent polling, and analysis...subscribe now.