Election Eve Update: Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2014 · 4:39 PM EST

Here are a ratings changes in a handful of competitive gubernatorial contests on the day before the election. 

Arkansas Governor. After months of optimism from Democrats about their ability to re-elect Sen. Mark Pryor (D) and elect former Rep. Mike Ross (D) as governor, it’s clear that both men are underdogs on Tuesday. We’re moving our rating from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican, in favor of former Rep. Asa Hutchinson and the Republicans.

Connecticut Governor. Independent candidate Joe Visconti dropped out of the race and endorsed Republican Tom Foley in his challenge to Gov. Dan Malloy (D). We have had the race rated as a Pure Toss-Up, and Visconti was receiving support in the mid-single digits. It’s unclear whether the development will make the difference. Leave as Pure Toss-Up.

Quinnipiac Univ., Oct. 28-Nov. 2 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Malloy over Foley 43%-42%, Visconti 8%. IDs: Malloy 43% favorable/49% unfavorable, Foley 42% favorable/44% unfavorable.
Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Oct. 30-Nov. 1 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Malloy over Foley 44%-41%, Visconti 6%. Malloy job rating: 38% approve/52% disapprove. Foley ID: 33% favorable/48% unfavorable.
Rasmussen Reports (IVR), Oct. 29-30 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Malloy over Foley 48%-47%.

Maryland Governor. Republicans believe an upset is in the making and that Republican Larry Hogan is running even with Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (D) in the final sprint to Election Day. The undecided voters are disproportionately Democratic, but if those voters don’t show up, it’s not impossible for Marylanders to elect another Republican governor. Democrats believe Brown is still ahead, but the race is closer than it would be in a neutral environment. Move from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

Massachusetts Governor. On the eve of Election Day, it looks like Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) is grasping defeat from the jaws of victory once again. The trend line has been pretty clear over the final two weeks; Republican Charlie Baker is now at least a slight favorite to win on Tuesday. Move from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.

Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Oct. 30-Nov. 2 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Baker over Coakley 46%-42%. IDs: Coakley 44% favorable/44% unfavorable, Baker 52% favorable/33% unfavorable.
Western New England Univ., Oct. 21-30 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Baker over Coakley 46%-41%. IDs: Coakley 42% favorable/47% unfavorable, Baker 54% favorable/28% unfavorable.
Boston Globe, Oct. 26-29 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Baker over Coakley 44%-37%. IDs: Baker 57% favorable/26% unfavorable, Coakley 46% favorable/45% unfavorable.
Emerson College Polling Society, Oct. 26-29 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Baker over Coakley 48%-42%. IDs: Baker 53% favorable/35% unfavorable, Coakley 45% favorable/47% unfavorable.
UMass-Amherst, Oct. 20-27 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Coakley over Baker 47%-44%.

Rhode Island Governor. State Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D) is in a closer-than-expected race with Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R). There is limited data in the race but the RGA has been spending big in order to try and capture the open governorship. Raimondo angered organized labor with changes to the state pension system, so there is an opportunity for Fung to win considering there is some division in the Democratic ranks. Move from Democrat Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

Wisconsin Governor. We have expected the race between Gov. Scott Walker (D) and Mary Burke (R) to be very close, considering the small number of voters in the state who are truly undecided. But it looks like the plagiarism allegations put Burke on the defensive and she never fully recovered. Walker should be considered a slight favorite going into Tuesday. Move from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.

Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR), Oct. 28-30 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Walker over Burke 48%-47%. Walker job rating: 49% approve/47% disapprove. Burke ID: 45% favorable/48% unfavorable.
Marquette Univ. Law School, Oct. 23-26 (LVs)--GEneral Election ballot: Walker over Burke 50%-43%. Burke ID: 39% favorable/49% unfavorable
Rasmussen Reports (IVR), Oct. 20-21 (LVs)--General Election ballot: Burke over Walker 49%-48%.