California 25: Another District Falls Off the List of Competitive Races

Nathan L. Gonzales June 4, 2014 · 11:04 AM EDT

Projecting which party is going to win a competitive seat in November can be challenging, except when one party doesn’t even have a candidate.

Two Republicans finished first and second in the primary in California’s 25th District, guaranteeing that the seat will remain in GOP hands for another two years. The seat is open because of Republican Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon’s decision not to run for re-election.

On Tuesday, former state senator Tony Strickland finished first with 29 percent followed by state Sen. Steve Knight at 28 percent in the all-party primary. Podiatrist Lee Rogers, the Democrat who lost to McKeon in 2012, finished third with 22 percent. Democrat Ivan Thomas received 10 percent and two other Republicans combined for 7 percent.

Without a Democrat on the November ballot, we’re changing our Rothenberg Political Report rating of California’s 25th District from Republican Favored to Safe Republican.

That narrows the number of competitive House races nationally from 51 to 50. Of those seats, 26 are currently held by Republicans and 24 currently held by Democrats. Because two Democratic seats (Utah’s 4th District and North Carolina’s 7th District) are already considered Safe Republican takeovers, Democrats need to win 43 out of the 50 races on our chart.