2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 10, 2022)

November 10, 2022 · 9:47 AM EST

Updated as of Nov. 10, 2022 at 9:45am ET

By Jacob Rubashkin, Erin Covey, and Nathan Gonzales

Apparently, there aren’t any normal elections.  

While there are still dozens of consequential races to be called and the fight for both the House or Senate majorities is ongoing, it’s clear that the 2022 midterm elections are not aligning neatly with historical trends.

With President Joe Biden’s slumping job approval rating and Americans prioritizing concerns about inflation, Republicans were poised to take back Congress. But the GOP’s path was complicated by underwhelming Senate nominees in critical states and independent voters who didn’t hold Democratic candidates responsible for the president’s job approval — or were unsure of putting Republicans in charge.

It’s best to wait until all the races have been called before doing any deep analysis, but some initial takeaways have already surfaced.

The fight for the Senate was always projected to be close and remains so. The final Senate outcome is going to fall within our projected range of a Republican gain of two seats to a Democratic gain of one seat.

Even with three key Senate races and a few dozen competitive House races yet to be called, we can say that it was a good cycle for polling. Of course all the polls were not accurate, but our individual race ratings, driven by public and private survey data, are performing very well. Just two House races have gone against the party they leaned toward thus far: two Tilt Democratic races in Long Island, NY, that Republicans won.

The fight for the House is emerging as the biggest surprise of the cycle. Republicans are unlikely to reach our range of a gain of 13-30 seats, if they win the majority at all. Independent voters who disapproved of the job Biden is doing and who prioritized economic concerns did not break toward Republican candidates as expected.

Overall, independent voters supported Democratic candidates narrowly, 49-47 percent, according to the CNN exit poll. That’s down from 2020, when independent voters supported Biden 54-41 percent, but nowhere near the typical midterm cycle that was expected.

If the ratings had held true, with each party winning all the seats where they were favored and the 20 toss-up races splitting evenly, that would have resulted in a GOP gain of 13 seats. But toss-up races are breaking disproportionately for Democrats, and the most likely House range is now closer to R +4-11 seats.

There is also the distinct possibility that Democrats hold their House majority and lose control of the Senate. That scenario was unthinkable at any point in the cycle. 

One thing that may come back to bite House Democrats is the number of incumbents in competitive districts who decided not to run for re-election, or run in a less competitive seat. In Michigan’s 10th District and Wisconsin’s 3rd District, highly touted GOP nominees didn’t have to run against well-funded Democratic incumbents but are barely eking out wins over their unheralded opponents. And in New York’s 3rd and 4th Districts, Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice would have been better-positioned to hold the line against the ultimately victorious GOP nominees. 

With the majority math so tight, that could make all the difference — as could court decisions striking down Democratic gerrymanders in New York and Maryland, and other court cases sustaining GOP gerrymanders in Florida and Texas.

We’ll update this over the next couple of weeks, but here’s where things stand as of 9:45am:


Balance of Power

Republicans: 49
Democrats: 48
Uncalled Races: 3

Uncalled Senate Races

Alaska (will be a Republican)

Defeated Senators

None (yet)

New Senators

Katie Boyd Britt (R-AL)
Eric Schmitt (R-MO)
Ted Budd (R-NC)
J.D. Vance (R-OH)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK)
John Fetterman (D-PA)
Peter Welch (D-VT)

Competitive Race Detail as of 9:45am, 11/10/2022
According to the Associated Press

Cortez-Masto (D): 47.6%
Laxalt (R): 49.4%
None of These Candidates: 1.2%
Estimated % of vote counted: 83%
Called by: TBD

Fetterman (D): 50.8%
Oz (R): 46.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Warnock (D): 49.4%
Walker (R): 48.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: Dec. 6 runoff called by AP, DDHQ

New Hampshire
Hassan (D): 53.4%
Bolduc (R): 44.6%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Kelly (D): 51.4%
Masters (R): 46.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: 70%
Called by: TBD

Johnson (R): 50.5%
Barnes (D): 49.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

North Carolina
Budd (R): 50.7%
Beasley (D): 47.1%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Vance (R): 53.3%
Ryan (D): 46.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Murray (D): 57%
Smiley (R): 43%
Estimated % of vote counted: 65%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Bennet (D): 54%
O’Dea (R): 43%
Estimated % of vote counted: 88%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Rubio (R): 57.7%
Demings (D): 41.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95% 
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Lee (R): 54.9%
McMullin (I): 41.6%
Estimated % of vote counted: 62%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Grassley (R): 56%
Franken (D): 44%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP


Balance of Power

Republicans: TBD
Democrats: TBD
Uncalled Competitive Races: 26

Pre-election range: GOP +13-30
Updated most likely range based on results: GOP +4-11 (+5 needed for majority)

Uncalled Competitive House Races

Likely Democratic

AZ-04 (Stanton, D)
CA-09 (Harder, D)
CA-26 (Brownley, D)
MD-06 (Trone, D) 

Lean Democratic

AK-AL (Peltola, D)
NV-04 (Horsford, D) 

Tilt Democratic 

CA-47 (Porter, D)
CA-49 (Levin, D)
ME-02 (Golden, D)
NV-01 (Titus, D)
NV-03 (Lee, D)
NY-18 (Ryan, D) 


CA-13 (Open; Harder, D)
CA-22 (Valadao, R)
NY-22 (Open; Katko, R)
OR-06 (Open; New)
WA-08 (Schrier, D) 

Tilt Republican

CA-27 (Garcia, R)
OR-05 (Open; Schrader, D) 

Lean Republican

AZ-01 (Schweikert, R)
CA-45 (Steel, R)
WA-03 (Open; Herrera Beutler, R) 

Likely Republican

CA-03 (Open; McClintock, R)
CA-40 (Kim, R) 

Uncalled Solid Republican House Races to Watch

CO-03 (Boebert, R)
CA-41 (Calvert, R)

Called Competitive House Races
Races in italics are flips

Likely Democratic

CO-07 (Open; Perlmutter, D) - Brittany Pettersen (D)
IL-06 (Newman, D/Casten, D) - Rep. Sean Casten (D)
IL-14 (Underwood, D)    - Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
NH-02 (Kuster, D) - Rep. Ann Kuster (D)
NC-01 (Open; Butterfield, D) - Don Davis (D)
NJ-03 (Kim, D) - Rep. Andy Kim (D)
NY-25 (Morelle, D) - Rep. Joseph Morelle (D)
PA-12 (Open; Doyle, D) - Summer Lee (D)
VA-10 (Wexton, D) - Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D)

Lean Democratic

IN-01 (Mrvan, D) - Rep. Frank Mrvan (D)
MI-08 (Kildee, D) - Rep. Dan Kildee (D)
OH-09 (Kaptur, D) - Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
TX-28 (Cuellar, D) - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)

Tilt Democratic

IL-13 (Open; Davis, R) - Nikki Budzinski (D)
KS-03 (Davids, D) - Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
MI-03 (Open; Meijer, R) - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-07 (Slotkin, D) - Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)
NH-01 (Pappas, D) - Rep. Chris Pappas (D)
NY-03 (Open; Suozzi, D) - George Santos (R)
NY-04 (Open; Rice, D) - Anthony D’Esposito (R)

OR-04 (Open; DeFazio, D) - Val Hoyle (D)
VA-07 (Spanberger, D) - Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)


CT-05 (Hayes, D) - Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)
IL-17 (Open; Bustos, D) - Eric Sorensen (D)
MN-02 (Craig, DFL) - Rep. Angie Craig (D)
NC-13 (Open; R) - Wiley Nickel (D)
NE-02 (Bacon, R)  - Rep. Don Bacon (R)
NM-02 (Herrell, R) - Gabe Vasquez (D)
​NY-17 (S.P. Maloney, D) - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 (Open; Ryan, D) - Marc Molinaro (R)

OH-01 (Chabot, R) - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-13 (Open; Ryan, D) - Emilia Sykes (D)
PA-07 (Wild, D) - Rep. Susan Wild (D)   
PA-08 (Cartwright, D) - Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-17 (Open; Lamb, D) - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 (Open; Langevin, D) - Seth Magaziner (D)
TX-34 (Flores, R/Gonzalez, D) - Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)

Tilt Republican

AZ-06 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D) - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CO-08 (Open; New) - Yadira Caraveo (D)
IA-02 (Hinson, R) - Rep. Ashley Hinson (R)
IA-03 (Axne, D) - Zach Nunn (R)
NJ-07 (Malinowski, D) - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
VA-02 (Luria, D) - Jen Kiggans (R)

Lean Republican

AZ-02 (O'Halleran, D) - Eli Crane (R)
FL-13 (Open; Crist, D) - Anna Paulina Luna (R)

IA-01 (Miller-Meeks, R) - Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks (R)
MI-10 (Open; Levin, D) - John James (R)
MT-01 (Open, New) - Ryan Zinke (R)
NY-01 (Open; Zeldin, R) - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-02 (Garbarino, R) - Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R)
TX-15 (Open; V. Gonzalez, D) - Monica De La Cruz (R)
WI-03 (Open; Kind, D) - Derrick Van Orden (R)

Likely Republican

FL-05 (Lawson, D) - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
FL-07 (Open; Murphy, D) - Cory Mills (R)
FL-15 (Open; Franklin, R) - Laurel Lee (R)
FL-27 (Salazar, R) - Rep. Marie Elvira Salazar (R)
GA-06 (Open; McBath, D) - Rich McCormick (R)
NY-11 (Malliotakis, R) - Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)
TN-05 (Open; Cooper, D) - Andy Ogles (R)

Defeated incumbents

Defeated in General

Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ)
Rep. Al Lawson (D-FL)
Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA)
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM)
Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH)
Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX)
Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA)

Defeated in Primary

Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA)
Rep. Marie Newman (D-IL)
Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)
Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI)
Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI)
Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS)
Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC)
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY)
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR)
Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC)
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)
Rep. David McKinley (R-WV)
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY)

Districts That Flipped

AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
FL-05 - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NJ-7 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D’Esposito (R)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-34 - Vicente Gonzalez (D)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)

New House Members

AL-05 - Dale Strong (R)
AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CA-42 - Robert Garcia (D)
CO-07 - Brittany Pettersen (D)
CO-08 - Yadira Caraveo (D)
FL-04 - Aaron Bean (R)
FL-07 - Cory Mills (R)
FL-10 - Maxwell Frost (D)
FL-13 - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
FL-15 - Laurel Lee (R)
GA-06 - Rich McCormick (R)
GA-10 - Mike Collins (R)
HI-02 - Jill Tokuda (D)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-01 - Jonathan Jackson (D)
IL-03 - Delia Ramirez (D)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
IL-17 - Eric Sorensen (D)
IN-02 - Rudy Yakym (R)
IN-09 - Erin Houchin (R)
KY-03 - Morgan McGarvey (D)
MD-04 - Glenn Ivey (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
MI-13 - Shri Thanedar (D)
MO-04 - Mark Alford (R)
MO-07 - Eric Burlison (R)
MS-04 - Mike Ezell (R)
MT-01 - Ryan Zinke (R)
NC-01 - Don Davis (D)
NC-04 - Valerie Foushee (D)
NC-11 - Chuck Edwards (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NC-14 - Jeff Jackson (D)
NJ-07 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NJ-08 - Robert Menendez Jr. (D)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-01 - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D'Esposito (R)
NY-10 - Dan Goldman (D)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
NY-23 - Nick Langworthy (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-07 - Max Miller (R)
OH-13 - Emilia Sykes (D)
OK-02 - Josh Brecheen (R)
OR-04 - Val Hoyle (D)
PA-12 - Summer Lee (D)
PA-17 - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 - Seth Magaziner (D)
SC-07 - Russell Fry (R)
TN-05 - Andy Ogles (R)
TX-01 - Nathaniel Moran (R)
TX-03 - Keith Self (R)
TX-08 - Morgan Luttrell (R)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-30 - Jasmine Crockett (D)
TX-35 - Greg Casar (D)
TX-38 - Wesley Hunt (R)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)
VT-AL - Becca Balint (D)
WI-03 - Derrick Van Orden (R)
WY-AL - Harriet Hageman (R)


Balance of Power

Republican Governors: 28
Democratic Governors: 22

Republicans: 24
Democrats: 23
Uncalled Races: 3

Uncalled Races

Arizona (Hobbs vs. Lake)
Nevada (Sisolak vs. Lombardo)
Alaska (Dunleavy vs. Gara vs. Walker)

Competitive Race Detail as of 2:45pm, 11/9/2022
According to the Associated Press

Drazan (R): 46.7%
Kotek (D): 43.9%
Johnson (I): 8.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: 73%
Called by: DDHQ, the Oregonian

Lake (R): 49.66%
Hobbs (D): 50.34%
Estimated % of vote counted: 70%
Called by: TBD

Kemp (R): 53.4%
Abrams (D): 45.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Schmidt (R): 47.7%
Kelly (D): 49.2%
Pyle (I): 2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ

LePage (R): 43%
Mills (D): 55%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Dixon (R): 43.9%
Whitmer (D): 54.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Lombardo (R): 50.1%
Sisolak (D): 46.2%
None of These Candidates: 1.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: 83%
Called by: TBD

New Mexico
Ronchetti (R): 45.6%
Lujan Grisham (D): 51.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

New York
Zeldin (R): 47.2%
Hochul (D): 52.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: 94%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Mastriano (R): 42.1%
Shapiro (D): 56.1%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Michels (R): 47.8%
Evers (D): 51.2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

DeSantis (R): 59.4%
Crist (D): 40.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Stitt (R): 55.5%
Hofmeister (D): 41.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: 95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Jensen (R): 44.6%
Walz (D): 52.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Dunleavy (R): 52%
Gara (D): 23%
Walker (NP): 20%
Pierce (R): 4.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: 80%
Called by: TBD

Abbott (R): 54.8%
O’Rourke (D): 43.8% 
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Cox (R): 37.1%
Moore (D): 59.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: 91%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

Diehl (R): 35%
Healey (D): 63%
Estimated % of vote counted: 89%
Called by: DDHQ, AP

New Governors

Josh Green (D-HI)
Maura Healey (D-MA)
Wes Moore (D-MD)
Jim Pillen (R-NE)
Josh Shapiro (D-PA)