Senate News & Analysis

Will Debt Dance Be a Disaster for Incumbents?

by Stuart Rothenberg August 3, 2011 · 11:04 AM EDT

Congress, we hear from voters of all stripes on television and in print, is a disaster, unable even to address important questions let alone find good answers. Even with the deal to raise the debt limit and avoid a default, voters surely will punish all incumbents next November, won’t…

2012 Senate Overview (August 1, 2011)

August 1, 2011 · 3:16 PM EDT

The combination of retirements and GOP recruiting has already put the Senate in play. The GOP needs to gain three or four seats to win control (depending on which party holds the White House), and already five Democratic-held Senate seats are no better than toss-ups. The Democratic outlook would…

In Debt Debacle, Someone Will Have to Blink

by Stuart Rothenberg July 29, 2011 · 9:34 AM EDT

After months of posturing, promising and threatening, the endgame on raising the debt ceiling and shrinking the deficit is approaching.

But after talking during the past few days with a variety of participants and observers, I can find no consensus on exactly what the final result will be.

These Are the Dog Days for Rating Senate Races

by Stuart Rothenberg July 27, 2011 · 9:21 AM EDT

A veteran Democratic consultant once told me something very wise: 90 percent of what happens in a campaign has little to do with determining who wins and who loses.

The problem is that we don’t know exactly what the important 10 percent is.

I think of this…

The Center Can’t Hold if There Isn’t One Left

by Stuart Rothenberg July 22, 2011 · 12:25 PM EDT

It wasn’t that long ago that any talks leading to a possible major bipartisan deal would include names like former Sens. John Breaux (D-La.) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), former Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Sens. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and, yes, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

Missouri Senate: Math Problem

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 15, 2011 · 3:00 PM EDT

As a Democratic senator in a red state, Claire McCaskill has always known that she was going to have a tough race. But she might have made things a little more difficult for herself.

After years of crafting an image as an independent, good government politician, McCaskill has…

Debt Ceiling Stalemate Not About Numbers

by Stuart Rothenberg July 15, 2011 · 11:08 AM EDT

There is an old joke, attributed to both Winston Churchill and George Bernard Shaw. It goes something like this:

Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for 5 million pounds?

Woman: My goodness, Mr. Churchill ... Well, I suppose ... we would have to discuss terms, of…

PPP (D) Polls Flood Early Senate Landscape

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 5, 2011 · 10:09 AM EDT

In recent years, Democrats have consistently criticized Rasmussen Reports for flooding the public space with polls and driving the narrative of races to favor Republican candidates. But six months into the 2012 cycle, public polling in Senate races has been dominated by one Democratic firm.

Public Policy Polling,…

The Politics of the Debt Ceiling Are Too Tempting

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2011 · 1:01 PM EDT

With President Barack Obama’s job approval sliding, the stock market showing its nerves, the public increasingly pessimistic about a jobs rebound and signs of a slowing economy everywhere, the president looks to be increasingly in trouble.

Trying to take advantage of what they see as an opportunity, Congressional…

No Rival and Plenty of Cash? Don’t Rest Easy

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2011 · 9:30 AM EDT

With millions of dollars in the bank and no challenger, the path to re-election looks like a freshly paved freeway for some Senate incumbents. But using recent history as a road map, those factors can be poor predictors of electoral success and certainly don't guarantee another term.

With…