Senate News & Analysis

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

Though it probably won’t start for a few more days, the “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members of Congress find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight,…

For Martha McKenna, All Politics Is Personal

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 29, 2012 · 11:24 AM EDT

To her friends, Martha McKenna is Baltimore’s ambassador, but Democrats have chosen her to be a critical part of holding their Senate majority.

The 37-year-old Democratic operative was born in Chicago, but there is no question that Charm City is home. It’s where McKenna grew up, got her…

If Lugar Loses, Will Indiana Really Be in Play?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 28, 2012 · 10:09 AM EDT

Now that the Club for Growth and other conservatives groups have decided to make a substantial investment in defeating veteran Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, and polling suggests a tightening race, it should be pretty clear even to the Senator’s most loyal supporters that he has a very serious fight…

Maine Senate: Winter Surprise

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

It's not very often one party picks up a U.S. Senate seat without supporting its nominee or spending any money, but that might happen this year in Maine.

Sen. Olympia Snowe's surprise retirement was the definition of a game-changer-- taking a safe Republican seat and moving…

Utah Primaries: Power to the Precincts

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 9, 2012 · 2:00 PM EST

Utah’s primary isn’t for another three months, but Sen. Orrin Hatch’s electoral fate could be sealed next week.

The six-term GOP senator is trying to avoid following in the footsteps of his colleague, Bob Bennett, who not only lost reelection in 2010, but failed to make it out…

Nebraska and Hawaii: Studying Senate Handicapping

by Stuart Rothenberg March 7, 2012 · 8:00 AM EST

There is no single “right” way to handicap a race.

You can evaluate where the race is at a particular moment and “rate” what you see. Or, after noting the candidates’ current standing, you can make an informed projection about how the race will play out, changing your…

Latino Prospects in Senate Dwindle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 1, 2012 · 1:47 PM EST

Latinos are growing into a powerful voting bloc, but there is the real possibility that the U.S. Senate won’t have any additional Hispanics next year.

Last year, a handful of Latinos had an opportunity to get elected and join Florida’s Marco Rubio and New Jersey’s Bob Menendez as…

Nebraska Senate: Back to Republican Favored After Kerrey Decision

February 29, 2012 · 3:26 PM EST

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey’s last-minute reversal to get into the Nebraska Senate race is reason to re-evaluate our rating.

In the last week’s edition of RPR, we moved the Nebraska race to Safe for the Republicans based on the lack of credible Democratic candidates, but we also wrote…

Claire McCaskill’s Mountain: A Tough Climb to Victory

by Stuart Rothenberg February 29, 2012 · 8:15 AM EST

Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) knows exactly where she needs to be positioned. And she has done about as good a job as possible to sell herself to Show-Me State voters as an “independent” Democrat who doesn’t always agree with her party or her president.

But even veteran party…

Snowe’s Decision Shakes Senate Landscape

February 28, 2012 · 6:14 PM EST

Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s surprise retirement announcement on Tuesday dramatically shifts her Maine seat from the Safe Republican column and places it firmly in the center of the fight for the Senate majority.

The moderate Snowe had burnished her own independent credentials so deeply that the only real…