Senate News & Analysis

Senate Fight: Still Too Early to Count Chickens

by Stuart Rothenberg October 24, 2012 · 10:20 AM EDT

One year ago, Republicans had every reason to believe that they were poised to net at least four Senate seats in November and gain control of the chamber in the next Congress. A month ago, on the other hand, Democrats had reason to be confident that even if they…

Pennsylvania Sen. Casey (D) Moved from Safe to Favored

October 19, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

Is Sen. Bob Casey (D) this year’s October surprise?

The Pennsylvania Democrat’s re-election race was largely ignored for most of the cycle until recently when multiple public polls showed him in a surprisingly tight contest with wealthy businessman Tom Smith.

In the last 10 days, five polls…

Senate Strategists Look for Presidential Effect (Senate Overview, October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

What a difference a week makes. Just when it appeared that President Obama was gaining an advantage and some key Senate races were slipping away from Republicans, Romney is back and all is not lost in the Republican fight for the majority.


But while Republican strategists…

Parties Locked in Fight for the Senate (Senate Overview, October 5, 2012)

October 5, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

The Senate is still broadly “in play,” but that doesn’t mean that it is a pure toss-up.

Democrats have the edge because of the retirement of Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) and the implosion of Todd Akin in Missouri, potentially handing Democrats two seats that should be in…

Republican Path to Senate Majority Narrows (Senate Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The Senate playing field looks vastly different than either party had anticipated a year, or even six months ago -- and it’s moved decidedly in Democrats’ favor, in part because of campaign-specific developments and in part because of a general slippage in GOP numbers in states where Obama is…

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

In fact, candidates' abilities to fight…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

September 14, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

With Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s Missouri Senate seat moving from more likely than not to switch to the GOP to more likely than not to remain in Democratic hands, Republican chances for taking back the Senate have slipped.

The Senate is certainly still “in play” -- but only…

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2012 · 11:28 AM EDT

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

Whether the reaction came from the national party's House and Senate campaign committees, President Barack Obama's re-election campaign or individual Democratic campaigns…

Convention: Same Goal, Altered Path for Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 6, 2012 · 11:46 AM EDT

Not long ago, Democrats had it all: the first African-American president sitting in the Oval Office, the first female Speaker of the House and even a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Four years later, the only remaining piece - the presidency - might be taken away from them.

Convention: One Candidate’s Path is Another Candidate’s Hurdle for Democrats in Senate

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2012 · 5:24 PM EDT

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Democratic strategists are cautiously optimistic that they will maintain their Senate majority, but, absent an unforeseen political wave, the party will do battle in a series of local contests where an asset in one state might be a hurdle in another.

“Voters of Wisconsin don’t…