Senate News & Analysis

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2018 · 9:26 AM EDT

In my column last week, I noted that current public opinion data and recent election results point to a likely Democratic takeover of the House in the fall.

Some argue President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is already baked into the election cake, leaving Republicans little room to maneuver. But if…

Montana Senate: GOP Hopes to Strike Gold In The Treasure State

by Leah Askarinam March 23, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

We’re told it’s better to be lucky than good, but Democrat Jon Tester might be both. The Senator from Montana was elected and re-elected with less than a majority in two good Democratic cycles against flawed opponents. But he’s also cultivated a home-grown image that will make it difficult for…

Top of the Ticket Woes Could Lead to Downballot Debacle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive statewide races…

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2018 · 9:07 AM EDT

The gun debate has shifted dramatically. Suddenly, it looks as if the issue will benefit Democrats in November, not Republicans.

The reason for the shift doesn’t rest primarily on the intelligence and commitment of the students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, although many of them have…

Indiana Senate: Donnelly Against the Crowd

by Leah Askarinam March 9, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Most Republicans and Democrats seem equally concerned about their chances in the Indiana Senate race. 

Indiana elected exclusively Republicans to statewide offices in 2016 and voted for President Donald Trump by 19 points, which should perturb Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. But Donnelly has mostly remained out of the national spotlight,…

Mississippi Senate Special: Majority Could Hang in the Balance Into December

March 9, 2018 · 2:27 PM EST

It happens every cycle. There’s a scenario when the fight for the Senate majority moves beyond the beginning of November because of a potential runoff in Louisiana or Georgia. Now it’s a possibility with the special election to replace GOP Sen. Thad Cochran, who is resigning on April 1. 

After…

Candidate Conversation - Kelli Ward (R)

March 9, 2018 · 2:23 PM EST

Arizona Senate - Rating: Toss-Up

Interview Date: Feb. 21, 2018 

Date of Birth: Jan. 25, 1969; Fairmont, West Virginia

Education: Duke Univ. (1991); West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine (1996)

Elected Office: State Senate (former, 2013-15)

Current Outlook: Ward faces Rep. Martha McSally and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio…

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

by Stuart Rothenberg February 8, 2018 · 9:12 AM EST

While most people seem fascinated by shifts in presidential job approval and national ballot tests, I’ve always thought that the “role of government” question asked in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey doesn’t get the attention it deserves.

The responses to that question offer interesting insights into how voters see…

West Virginia Senate: Last Democrat Standing

by Leah Askarinam February 2, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

The path to a Democratic Senate majority cuts through West Virginia, where Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a 42-point margin and the congressional representation has flipped from entirely Democratic to almost entirely Republican since 2000. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is the lone survivor.

But Democrats aren’t counting on losing…

Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter

by Stuart Rothenberg January 29, 2018 · 9:11 AM EST

Over the past few weeks, members of Congress, journalists and television hosts agreed on one thing: The looming government shutdown was a huge deal. Then, after the shutdown ended, those same people pontificated about who won and who lost, as well as about liberal dissatisfaction with the deal to open…