Senate News & Analysis

It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One

by Stuart Rothenberg January 23, 2018 · 8:49 AM EST

“The odds are greater than half we will take back the Senate.” — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” last week.

Democrats ought to temper their optimism about the fight for the Senate this year.

Yes, Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama’s special election gives…

For Republicans, McSally Senate Run is Blessing, Curse

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2018 · 2:27 PM EST

Arizona Rep. Martha McSally’s Senate run is a good example of differing goals within the Republican Party. To GOP strategists focused on maintaining the majority in the Senate, McSally’s campaign for retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat was a boost. But she leaves behind a competitive 2nd District that will be…

The Democrats’ Savior

by Stuart Rothenberg January 16, 2018 · 9:05 AM EST

One year ago, as Donald Trump was preparing to take the oath of office, Democrats were in disarray. Supporters of 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were pointing fingers at each other, the Democratic National Committee was in disgrace, and Democratic voters were demoralized.

Now, Trump has…

2018 Senate Overview: Alabama Puts Democrats Closer to Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 5, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Last year ended with a bang as Democrats took over a Senate seat in Alabama in a historic election, moving closer to recapturing the majority. And there is plenty of excitement left in this election cycle.

Doug Jones’ victory, which narrowed the GOP Senate advantage from 52-48 to 51-49, could…

The Fight for the Senate in the Wake of Alabama

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 15, 2017 · 2:29 PM EST

Doug Jones’s historic victory in Alabama gives Democrats an important seat in the fight for the Senate, but most Democratic candidates next year will have to take a different path in order to help the party secure a majority. 

The most obvious difference is that other Democratic candidates don’t get…

10 Thoughts After the Alabama Senate Election

December 13, 2017 · 12:48 AM EST

One of the best parts about covering elections is that there is always a result. After all the prognosticating, projecting, discussing and arguing, there’s a winner. But determining the true meaning of victory and loss can be difficult.

There will be plenty of time to analyze the Alabama Senate special…

No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 8, 2017 · 12:47 PM EST

Call me crazy, but I'm not sure we won't see a government shutdodwn, even though Congress managed to pass a stopgap spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 22. Why? Because no one in Washington is particularly afraid of a government shutdown.

Democrats aren’t afraid of a government…

Ratings Update: Tennessee Senate Remains Solid R for Now

December 7, 2017 · 1:14 PM EST

Democrats made a big splash this week with the entry of former Gov. Phil Bredesen into the Tennessee Senate race, but the party still has an uphill battle in a state President Donald Trump won convincingly, and it’s not even clear Bredesen gives Democrats the best chance of winning.

Ratings Change: Franken’s Minnesota Seat Starts as Likely for Democrats

December 7, 2017 · 12:30 PM EST

Sen. Al Franken’s resignation puts another Democratic seat into the 2018 mix, but it’s still unclear whether his departure provides Republicans with a legitimate takeover opportunity.

In order to handicap a race, it’s helpful to know where the contest will take place and who is running. In this case, we…

Missouri Senate: Claire’s Courtship of Trump Voters

by Leah Askarinam December 1, 2017 · 2:30 PM EST

If Democrats want to have any shot at winning a Senate majority in 2018, Sen. Claire McCaskill likely needs to win re-election—a tall task, given that Missouri voted for President Donald Trump by nearly 20 points. 

McCaskill is one of 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states that Trump…