Senate News & Analysis

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

by Stuart Rothenberg April 23, 2018 · 12:44 PM EDT

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.


2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

John Edwards’ “Two Americas” speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of…

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

April 20, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). June 26 primary. Cardin has never had a blowout race, but after 2016 when Clinton won Maryland by 26 points and Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen won the state’s other Senate seat by 25 points, the senator is in good shape…

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

April 20, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). May 15 primary. Rep. Lou Barletta ($1.6 million) is expected to defeat state Rep. Jim Christiana for the GOP nomination, but he faces a decidedly uphill race against Casey ($10 million) in the general election. Even though Trump squeaked out…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Push Polls Saga, Cynthia Nixon, and Minnesota’s 8th

April 17, 2018 · 3:00 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Arkansas’ 2nd District: Congratulations to Democrat Clarke Tucker’s campaign for using the term “robocalls” in a press release even though the local media referred to them as a “push poll,” which it most likely wasn’t since push polls don’t exist.


(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Arizona 8 Special, Ryan’s Exit, and NFL Fashion

April 12, 2018 · 3:00 PM EDT

by Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): Welcome to the big leagues, Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, who we’re learning hasn’t treated patients since 2011 and settled a malpractice lawsuit.

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Nathan told The Arizona Republic that “under normal conditions you…

Rating Change: Florida Senate Shifts to Toss-up

April 9, 2018 · 11:15 AM EDT

Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s plans have been talked about for so long that it would have been shocking if he hadn’t announced his challenge to Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson today. Now that the Republican governor is officially in, the Sunshine State is poised to host an expensive race with…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Florida Senate (a): GOP Gov. Rick Scott may not win the race this year, but it will be an expensive slog for Democrats and Sen. Bill Nelson, despite the confidence American Bridge projected in a memo Wednesday

Florida Senate (b): Democrats attacking Scott for being a weak vote-getter in…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2018 · 3:40 PM EDT

My inclination is to write 4,000 words about everything, so I’m trying something new by limiting myself to one line of a thought or analysis per race/existential thought. Here it goes:

Arizona’s 8th District. With EMILY’s List endorsing Democrat Hiral Tipirneni and the Republican National Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee,…

How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

by Leah Askarinam April 4, 2018 · 11:33 AM EDT

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith’s appointment in Mississippi will bring the number of women in the U.S. Senate to 23, the largest in U.S. history. While there’s room for that number to grow in the November midterm elections, with a handful of women in both parties running in competitive seats, it’s also…