Senate News & Analysis

Winter has Come for the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

You can explain away 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley’s loss in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by pointing to demographic changes in the district or campaign missteps by the incumbent, but that obscures a larger trend. Similar to the dynamic in the Republican Party, the power of the Democratic establishment…

Candidate Conversation - Richard Painter (DFL)

July 6, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

Minnesota Senate - Rating: Likely Democratic

Interview Date: May 22, 2018

Date of Birth: Oct. 3, 1961 (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 

Education: Harvard (1984); Yale (1987)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Painter is the underdog against Sen. Tina Smith in the Aug. 14 Democratic primary. Smith was appointed…

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2018 · 11:34 AM EDT

You need to hand it to President Donald Trump, his entire administration and his party. It takes more than a little chutzpah to act in a way that seems callous to the concerns of children. First, it was gun control. Now it is immigration in general, and separating children from…

10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2018 · 2:18 AM EDT

There’s plenty to digest from Tuesday’s primaries in New York, Maryland, Utah and beyond, but here are a few initial thoughts encapsulated in some run-on sentences.

Crowley’s loss. North Carolina Rep. Robert Pittenger’s primary loss last month wasn’t a surprise (considering his narrow win in 2016), and South Carolina…

GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2018 · 10:25 AM EDT

After defeating a flawed candidate in 2012 and President Donald Trump winning Indiana in 2016 by nearly 20 points, Sen. Joe Donnelly is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country. But don’t count him out yet, according to a new Republican poll.

Former state…

California House: Parties Regroup after Primary

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 14, 2018 · 3:59 PM EDT

Despite the breathless analysis in the run up to California’s Top Two primary, Democrats successfully navigated complicated races and have a nominee in each of their targeted House races. 

Getting locked out of the general election by not finishing in the top two would have been a disappointment and an…

Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t

by Stuart Rothenberg June 14, 2018 · 8:10 AM EDT

Former Trump campaign chief executive and White House strategist Steve Bannon recently told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that the midterm elections will be “an up or down vote” on the president. He also asserted that it’s imperative that Donald Trump nationalize the midterm elections.

“Trump’s second presidential race will be on…

Eight States That Will Decide the Senate Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 1, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

There are at least 14 competitive Senate races around the country, but knowing the outcome in just eight of the hottest contests will be all the evidence you need in figuring out whether Democrats will retake the majority this fall. 

On paper, a majority might look firmly in reach for…

Candidate Conversation - Mike Kennedy (R)

June 1, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

Utah Senate — Rating: Solid Republican 

Interview Date: May 2, 2018

Date of Birth: Feb. 2, 1969; Lansing, Mich. 

Education: BYU (1994); Michigan State medical school (1998); BYU Law School (2007)

Elected Office: State Rep. (2012-present) 

Current Outlook: It’s going to be difficult for anyone other than Mitt Romney to…

Why You Should Focus on Independents

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2018 · 8:53 AM EDT

I don’t trust anyone who tells me they already know the makeup of the midterm electorate. We can’t possibly know who will vote in the fall, let alone how they will cast their ballots.

If I were going to focus on a handful of variables to understand how the cycle…