Senate News & Analysis

Scenario #1: Base Turns Out Late, Saves Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:50 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…

2010 Senate Overview (October 1, 2010)

October 1, 2010 · 4:35 PM EDT

With recent polls showing the California race slipping away from the GOP, Republicans likely need to win two out of three competitive Senate contests -- Washington, Connecticut, and West Virginia -- to have a chance at netting ten seats and a majority in the next Senate. That’s not impossible,…

For Democrats, Senate Still a Possible Nightmare

by Stuart Rothenberg October 1, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Delaware’s Republican primary may well have lulled Democrats into a sense of complacency about their ability to hold the Senate after November’s elections. They would be wise to wake up if they want to avoid a nasty surprise on election night.

Tea party activists did indeed do Democrats…

DSCC Buying Time in Connecticut Senate Race

by Stuart Rothenberg September 30, 2010 · 1:14 PM EDT

With polls showing the race tightening and Democratic Senate nominee Richard Blumenthal slipping to or under the 50% mark in his contest against Linda McMahon (R), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is buying time in Connecticut, according to a reliable political source.

Democrats once hoped that Attorney General…

Parties’ Opposition Research Efforts Fuel Late Ads

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 30, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

As voters are being bombarded with political attack ads in the lead-up to November, few likely realize that what appears as a fine-print citation in a 30-second television commercial is the result of months of opposition research and an orchestrated communication effort by parties and candidates.

In a…

Final Stretch Not as Important as You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.

Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but…

Kentucky Senate Bluegrass Poll: Another Interpretation

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

When asked about the new Bluegrass Poll, which showed Republican Rand Paul’s lead shrinking from 15 points in an early September survey to a mere two points in a new survey, SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve commented, “Whether that is a result of genuine traction for (Conway), second thoughts about…

2010 Senate Overview (September 24, 2010)

September 24, 2010 · 5:20 PM EDT

The road to a gain of at least six Senate seats got a little bit easier for Republicans this week as multiple surveys show Wisconsin moving in the Republicans’ direction. In general, the Midwest is looking like a big, big problem for Democrats up and down the ballot. There…

State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

by Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory…

Handicapper Headache: What About Alaska?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 22, 2010 · 10:05 AM EDT

Can Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was denied renomination by Alaska Republicans, win as a write-in candidate in November? Obviously, it’s a long shot, as is any write-in campaign, but is it impossible?

I start off skeptical, but I’m not sure.

For anyone who doesn’t know about Alaska…