House News & Analysis

Can a Race Be Tight and Yet Not Competitive?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 10, 2012 · 10:01 AM EDT

Each cycle, my goal as a handicapper is to identify Congressional races where the result will mean a partisan takeover, not merely where the outcome will be close.

To some, this may seem like an odd distinction. After all, if an election is close — within a few…

House Majority Remains Out of Democrats’ Grasp (House Overview, October 5, 2012)

October 5, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

With a month to go before the election, we are changing our ratings for a handful of House races but see no reason to alter our overall assessment that Republicans are likely to retain their majority in November.

The two parties are looking at some very…

Democratic Surge in House Races? Not So Fast

by Stuart Rothenberg October 4, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

Conservative thinker William Kristol and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee usually don't see things the same way, but they seem to agree that the House of Representatives is "in play."

The Weekly Standard's Kristol raised that possibility, albeit with a few caveats, more than a week ago in…

House Majority Remains Out of Reach for Democrats (House Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

Publicly, Democrats insist that the House is “in play,” touting national polling that shows their party leading by a few points on the generic ballot. While President Obama and Senate Democrats appear to be gaining an advantage, a district-by-district analysis of the House continues to show Republicans well-positioned to…

Eight House Incumbents to Watch for Clues

by Stuart Rothenberg September 25, 2012 · 9:47 AM EDT

Looking for clues about November? If so, you might keep your eyes on a handful of House incumbents seeking re-election. Their fate could tell you a great deal about the mood of the voters, the ability of candidates to separate themselves from the top of the ticket and the…

Democrats Scramble to Make Case for House Majority

September 14, 2012 · 12:57 PM EDT

While their chances of holding the White House and the Senate might be improving, Democrats still face long odds in their effort to retake the majority in the House.

Democrats need to gain 25 seats but are still hindered by spending money defending some of their…

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2012 · 11:28 AM EDT

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

Whether the reaction came from the national party's House and Senate campaign committees, President Barack Obama's re-election campaign or individual Democratic campaigns…

Nearly 99% of House Incumbents Won Their Primaries

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 11, 2012 · 11:09 PM EDT

Congressional job approval isn’t even near 20 percent but nearly 99 percent of incumbents seeking re-election won their primaries this year.

Despite all the stories about a purported anti-incumbent wave in which voters would throw out sitting members of all shape, size and party, the phenomenon simply hasn’t…

Convention: Same Goal, Altered Path for Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 6, 2012 · 11:46 AM EDT

Not long ago, Democrats had it all: the first African-American president sitting in the Oval Office, the first female Speaker of the House and even a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Four years later, the only remaining piece - the presidency - might be taken away from them.

Convention: North Carolina Democrats Deal with Republican-Dealt Hand in the House

by Jessica Taylor September 4, 2012 · 5:27 PM EDT

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- North Carolina Democrats here in the Queen City have a common enemy-- their new congressional redistricting map that’s imperiled at least four Democratic-held districts this fall.

Democrats’ ire against the new lines was on full display at a delegation breakfast on Tuesday morning as the…