Governor News & Analysis

2019-20 Gubernatorial Overview (Feb. 1, 2019): Lean Opportunities

by Leah Askarinam February 1, 2019 · 2:30 PM EST

The final round of gubernatorial races before the new decade is starting to take shape, giving both political parties a handful of opportunities to shape policy and influence redistricting after the 2020 Census. 

Fourteen states are holding gubernatorial elections over the next two years — three in 2019 and eleven…

2019-20 Gubernatorial Overview (Feb. 1, 2019)

February 1, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

DELAWARE. John Carney (D), elected 2016 (58%). John Carney first ran for governor in 2008, but lost the Democratic primary to Jack Markell. Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, was expected to win Markell’s open seat in 2016, but he died of cancer in 2015.…

Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 21, 2018 · 8:30 AM EST

I love elections, particularly congressional races, but I’m just not in a hurry to jump to 2020. And I’m completely fine with holding off on releasing our race ratings until next year.

If I didn’t like elections, I would probably need to take a long look at doing something else…

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

by Ryan Matsumoto December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…

2019 Gubernatorial Overview: There’s No Off Year in Three States

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats went into the 2018 cycle with just 16 governors nationwide, and came out with 23. After next year’s elections, Democrats have a longshot opportunity to occupy half of the country’s governorships. 

Results for the midterms are still being certified—and in at least one case, being challenged— but 2019 won’t…

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 13, 2018 · 2:53 PM EST

With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.

According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent…

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.

I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower…

2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 20, 2018 · 10:59 AM EST

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.

In many ways, 2018 was a classic…

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alaska. Open; Bill Walker (I), not seeking re-election. Independent Gov. Bill Walker dropped his re-election bid, boosting the prospects of former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. The two men were at risk of dividing Democratic and left-of-center voters, which would have allowed Republican Mike Dunleavy to win with less than 50…