House Ratings

May 18, 2006 · 4:25 AM EDT

National and district-level numbers continue to raise red flags for Republicans around the country. In past cycles, the question was whether Democrats could nationalize races and pick off enough Republican seats to get to 218 seats -- and a majority. Now, the environment has already been nationalized and the question is whether Republicans can localize elections in enough districts to hold onto the House. It is far from clear that they can. Given that, we are increasing our estimate of likely Democratic gains from 7-10 seats to 8-12 seats (they need to net 15 seats for control), with a bias toward even greater Democratic gains.

Pure Toss-Up (9R, 0D)
AZ 8 (Open; Kolbe, R)
CO 7 (Open; Beauprez, R)
CT 2 (Simmons, R)
CT 4 (Shays, R)
IN 8 (Hostettler, R)
IN 9 (Sodrel, R)
IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R)
NM 1 (Wilson, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (5R, 0D)
CA 50 (Open; Cunningham, R) #
FL 22 (Shaw, R)
KY 4 (Davis, R)
NC 11 (Taylor, R) #
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

Lean Republican (12R, 0D)
AZ 5 (Hayworth, R)
CA 11 (Pombo, R) ^
CT 5 (Johnson, R)
IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R)
NY 20 (Sweeney, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)  
OH 15 (Pryce, R)
PA 7 (Weldon, R)
PA 10 (Sherwood, R) ^
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
TX 22 (DeLay, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)

Republican Favored (15R, 0D)
AZ 1 (Renzi, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)  
FL 9 (Open; Bilirakis, R)
FL 13 (Open; Harris, R)   
IN 2 (Chocola, R)
KY 3 (Northup, R) *
MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R)      
NV 2 (Open; Gibbons, R)   
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NH 2 (Bass, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 24 (Open, Boehlert, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
WI 8 (Open; Green, R)   

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (1R, 1D)
OH 6 (Open; Strickland, D) #
OH 18 (Ney, R)

Lean Democratic (0R, 5D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)   
IL 8 (Bean, D)    
LA 3 (Melancon, D)  
VT A-L (Open; Sanders, D)
WV 1 (Mollohan, D)

Democrat Favored (0R, 5D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)  
IA 3 (Boswell, D)
OH 13 (Open; Brown, D)
SC 5 (Spratt, D)
TX 17 (Edwards, D)

Seats In Play:
  Republican seats:  42
  Democratic seats:  11  
          TOTAL:   53    

* Moved since 4/21/06 benefiting Republicans
# Moved since 4/21/06, benefiting Democrats
^ Newly added to list

Dropped: WA 2 (Larsen, D).