President News & Analysis

Can Mitt Romney Meet New Hampshire Expectations?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 10, 2012 · 9:19 AM EST

Welcome aboard the weird electoral expectations train. Next stop: New Hampshire.Oddly, some observers interpreted the narrowest of wins in Iowa by former

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as a loss — a strange conclusion given that six months earlier, almost every veteran political analyst and handicapper was saying that…

For Mitt Romney, It’s Still Divide and Conquer

by Stuart Rothenberg January 3, 2012 · 9:48 AM EST

“Romney surges in Iowa on issue of electability” proclaimed the odd headline on the front page of Thursday’s Washington Post, citing a late December CNN/Time/ORC International poll showing Mitt Romney at 25 percent, leading Rep. Ron Paul (22 percent) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (16 percent) in the important…

Time for Rothenberg Annual Year-End Awards

by Stuart Rothenberg December 21, 2011 · 8:15 AM EST

Each year I try to give my own awards for the best and the worst, the silliest and the oddest. There were plenty of strange developments this year — heck, the entire Republican race for president has bordered on the bizarre — so there is more than enough material.…

Newt’s Surge: How High, How Long?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 2:58 PM EST

The rise of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is as real as it is unexpected.

Unlike Rick Perry’s surge upon entering the GOP race or Herman Cain’s surge after Perry stalled, Gingrich’s rise in the polls is different because his standing in the party is different than those…

Can Mitt Romney Conquer Newt Gingrich, His Own Ceiling?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 9:38 AM EST

Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete.

Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state. “That really says something…

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

by Stuart Rothenberg December 14, 2011 · 11:37 AM EST

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.

Few people…

Do Democrats Face More Trouble From Occupy Wall Street?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 9, 2011 · 10:50 AM EST

It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle.

But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal or redefined…

Fight for Senate Hinges on Six White House Battlegrounds

by Stuart Rothenberg December 7, 2011 · 9:48 AM EST

With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states.

If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of parliamentary-type voting, when ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare and the top of the…

For Republicans, It’s a Matter of Head or Heart

by Stuart Rothenberg November 30, 2011 · 9:57 AM EST

Republicans are now chewing over their party’s potential presidential nominee for 2012, and a dramatic division has become apparent between GOP insiders and the grass roots. But it’s not primarily a difference of ideology, though there is an element of that. Instead, the split centers on electability.

So…

A Strange Way to Pick Presidential Candidates

by Stuart Rothenberg November 18, 2011 · 9:32 AM EST

Presidential debates, says NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, are now part of the winnowing process. Instead of going to a small state and wooing caucus-goers, Republican presidential hopefuls are going on national cable to see if they can resonate with the voters.