Inside Elections

Abigail Spanberger’s name has long been at the top of the list of Democrats who could run to succeed term-limited Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2025. But Politico’s report that the congresswoman won’t run for re-election in 2024 as she prepares a gubernatorial campaign complicates Democrats’ ability to hold this battleground seat.

Without Spanberger on the ballot, Republicans would have an unquestionably better chance at picking up this seat. 

Joe Biden won this seat by 7 points in 2020, but Youngkin carried it by 5 points one year later. The district swung back toward Democrats’ in 2022, when Spanberger defeated Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega by 5 points (after the Republican made national news for her comments on abortion).

Even with Spanberger on the ballot, the 2024 race was expected to be fairly competitive, though Republicans who spoke with Inside Elections acknowledged that this race wouldn’t have been a priority. 

But Democratic operatives remain cautiously optimistic that they can hold this seat, which still favors them slightly. The 7th leans Democratic by 2.8 points (50.8 to 48.1 percent) according to Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures the political lean of a district based on the past four election cycles. And Democrats would prefer an open seat in a presidential year to a special election in an off-year.

Spanberger would be the third Democratic member this year to leave their competitive House seat in a bid for higher…