Good Candidate, Bad Candidate … Who Knows?

Nathaniel Rakich November 27, 2017 · 11:35 AM EST

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is “probably the most confident, strongest Democrat to run for the U.S. Senate since I moved to Arizona in 1998,” trumpeted an Arizona State political science professor. Across the country, the party is “notably underwhelmed” by the three Democrats running against Massachusetts…

Can Democrats “Minnick” John Katko and Erik Paulsen?

Stuart Rothenberg November 16, 2017 · 11:46 AM EST

New York Rep. John Katko and Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen have been very popular with voters. Unbeatable? Maybe not, but certainly well-entrenched and able to win in very challenging environments.

But even popular incumbents have been swept from office during partisan electoral waves, and…

Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor

Nathan L. Gonzales November 15, 2017 · 12:34 PM EST

There’s been plenty of media attention on the 15 members who have decided to call it quits and retire from the House, and another eight members are seeking a promotion to the Senate. But nine additional members are forgoing likely re-elections for uncertain and challenging races to become their…

Ratings Change: Alabama Senate Moves to Toss-up

November 14, 2017 · 4:34 PM EST

Roy Moore is testing a once-hypothetical question: What would it take for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama?

Under normal circumstances, Alabama would elect a Republican to Senate, even a candidate as polarizing as Moore. But the situation changed when The Washington Post reported…

I Interviewed 16 House Candidates in Two Days and Survived

Nathan L. Gonzales November 13, 2017 · 10:10 AM EST

I’ve interviewed at least 1,000 congressional candidates over the last 16 years, but never 16 candidates in two days.

More than 100 Democratic candidates running for the House descended on the nation’s capital a few weeks ago for candidate training hosted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign…

2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs?

Nathan L. Gonzales November 10, 2017 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats haven’t struggled to recruit candidates, but this week’s results in Virginia should encourage any wavering House challengers to get off the sidelines. Even so, it remains unclear whether Tuesday’s sweeping victories portend a national electoral wave next year. 

Two gubernatorial wins and…

2018 House Overview (Nov. 10, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

November 10, 2017 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Feb. 9 filing deadline. June 5 primary.

2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman looked at risk of another primary challenger after facing down one in 2016 and getting less than 50 percent in the general election…

2018 House Overview (Nov. 10, 2017) Kansas - New York

November 10, 2017 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas. June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.

2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate makes this a competitive race, even though Trump won handily. Former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis…

2018 House Overview (Nov. 10, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

November 10, 2017 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. Feb. 28 filing deadline. May 8 primary.

2nd District (George Holding, R, re-elected 57%). Trump 53%. Businessman Sam Searcy, who owns a vodka distillery and has the ability to self-fund, could mount a serious challenge to Holding. Searcy raised just $95,000 in the third quarter but…