Candidate Conversation - TJ Cox (D)

August 31, 2018 · 10:51 AM EDT

California’s 21st District — Rating: Likely Republican

Interview Date: July 12, 2018

Date of Birth: July 18, 1963; Walnut Creek, Calif.

Education: Univ. of Nevada (1986); Southern Methodist Univ. (MBA 1999)

Elected Office: None; 19th District candidate (2006)

Current Outlook: Democrats…

A Congressional Candidate Plays Softball in an Ad, and I Have Lots of Questions

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 30, 2018 · 12:06 PM EDT

When I saw Ohio Democrat Aftab Pureval playing softball in a campaign ad, I felt like my years of election analysis and beer-league softball were finally coming together.

Pureval, the Hamilton County clerk of courts, is challenging Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio’s 1st District. He’s running…

Why We’re Not Changing the Rating in Duncan Hunter’s Seat, Yet

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 22, 2018 · 12:21 PM EDT

Whenever a member of Congress is indicted, it’s a good idea to take a long, hard look at their re-election chances. It’s also reasonable to believe their prospects for another term would be diminished and political handicappers would immediately downgrade their race. But it’s not so simple with GOP…

2018 House Overview (Aug. 17, 2018): From Waves to Fires

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 17, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

This cycle, the wave analogy has been watered down and it’s time for a new metaphor: fire. More specifically, fires. 

Whether it’s GOP Members in Hillary Clinton districts, extraordinary Democratic challengers and fundraising, competitive open seats, or lazy incumbents, Republicans have dozens of…

2018 House Overview (Aug. 17, 2018): Alaska - Iowa

August 17, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alaska. Aug. 21 primary.

At-Large (Don Young, R, re-elected 2016 with 50%). Trump 53%. Education reform activist Alyse Galvin is running for the Democratic nomination and might even be the frontrunner. In 2016, the Democratic nominee and an independent candidate combined for 39 percent. Young was…

2018 House Overview (Aug. 17, 2018): Kansas - New York

August 17, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT


2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. Defense contractor Steve Watkins (who is also an Afghanistan war veteran and and former Iditarod dog sled racer) won the crowded Aug. 7 primary. The Topeka and Lawrence-based district voted for Trump but former state…

2018 House Overview (Aug. 17, 2018): North Carolina - Wisconsin

August 17, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.

2nd District (George Holding, R, re-elected 57%). Trump 53%. Former state personnel director/former state Rep. Linda Coleman was perceived as the weaker candidate in the Democratic primary because her opponent was personally wealthy. But CLF recently announced a field office in the…

Congress Isn’t Perfect but the Politicians Aren’t Always to Blame

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 16, 2018 · 9:15 AM EDT

After 30 years of covering Congress, David Hawkings has a good idea of how Capitol Hill works — or more important, how it doesn’t — and he laid out five key reasons why Congress is broken.

But whether it’s money, maps, media, mingling or masochism, there are no easy solutions. Nor are they…