Swimming Upstream: GOP Opportunities in the House

April 24, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Plenty of ink has been spilled about the Democrats, their recruiting, and their quest to net the fifteen seats necessary to gain the majority in the House. But Democrats may actually need to takeover sixteen or seventeen seats in November to compensate for potential losses of their own.

In the last…

Will White House Shake Up Alter Public Opinion?

April 23, 2006 · 12:03 AM EDT

As Rob Portman moves into a new Administration post and Scott McClellan moves out of one, some members of the national media are abuzz. Will this help President George W. Bush as he and his party head to the ’06 midterm elections?

The answer is no.

Bush haters, of course, won’t change their…

New Print Edition: House Outlook

April 21, 2006 · 2:50 PM EDT

The new April 21, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

House Outlook For 2006
Stuart Rothenberg

While Democrats have failed to recruit the top tier candidates that they would like in places such as Arizona 1,…

California 50: Well, Let’s Not Exaggerate Things

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

The press releases from national Democrats about last week’s special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) are so out of sync with the actual election results that I don’t even know where to begin.

“Francine’s dramatic win shows that Democratic, independent and…

A June Loss in San Diego Could Spell November Disaster for Republicans

April 18, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

A win on June 6 by Democrat Francine Busby in the special election runoff to replace Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th Congressional District would be more than a symbolic victory for the Democrats. Democrats would then need a net gain of only fourteen seats, but more importantly, the…

California 50: Race Far From Over

April 17, 2006 · 12:07 AM EDT

The result of Tuesday’s special election in California’s 50th Congressional District has Democrats claiming the mantle of victory and foreshadowing sweeping change in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November election.

But the reality of the situation is much less clear.

This week’s…

California 50: By the Numbers

April 16, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

Democrats are claiming victory after Francine Busby’s 44% showing in Tuesday’s special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). But her fight to get over 50% in the June 6 run-off in the San Diego-area congressional seat is certainly uphill.

Busby’s showing was equivalent to John Kerry’s…

Have Democrats Expanded the Field for ’06 House Races?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 13, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

For more than a year now, House Democrats have insisted that they want to widen the political playing field by recruiting strong candidates in districts they often have ignored. Now, with about 40 percent of state filing deadlines having already passed, it’s time to ask: How have the Democrats…

Both Parties Guilty of Ballot Games

April 12, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

While some Democrats are incensed about the way former Majority Leader Tom DeLay chose to exit his race for reelection in Texas 22, both parties are guilty of being coy with election laws, primaries, and filing deadlines to gain a partisan advantage.

Of all the accusations hurled at DeLay, being…

No Time to DeLay: Now What for the Democrats?

April 11, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

In announcing that he was ending his Congressional career and would resign his seat in the United States House of Representatives, Representative Tom DeLay (R) gave Democrats just what they wished for: His head.

DeLay’s exit won’t deprive Democrats of their “culture of corruption” argument.…