Archive

Maybe Candidate ‘Electability’ Isn’t So Decisive After All

by Stuart Rothenberg January 28, 2008 · 8:05 AM EST

Ever since Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) beat Howard Dean in Iowa in 2004 and went on to win the Democratic presidential nomination, we have heard that voters are becoming more strategic in their decision- making. They want to nominate someone who can win, not merely the candidate they agree with or…

Missouri 6: Graves Vs. Barnes- A Royal Rumble in Kansas City

by Stuart Rothenberg January 23, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

“At-risk” incumbents come in all shapes and sizes. Sometimes their vulnerability follows from their voting records or their personal lives. Other times, it has nothing to do with them personally and everything to do with the quality of their opponents or the makeup of their electorates. And…

Missouri Governor: Blunt Not Seeking Reelection

January 22, 2008 · 3:11 PM EST

Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt (R) is expected to announce that he will not seek reelection to a second term, according to Republican sources.

Blunt was in the midst of an extremely competitive race with state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D). Because of his low job approval numbers, the governor’s…

History Working Against Senate GOP

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 21, 2008 · 11:40 PM EST

While voter sentiment about the parties and the top issues may change between now and November, one thing will remain: The Republicans’ historic disadvantage in the number of Senate seats they are forced to defend this cycle.

From the beginning, the playing field was stacked against them.…

Can Giuliani Get Into the Republican Game in Florida?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 20, 2008 · 11:04 PM EST

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has taken quite a hit recently both in the national media and in national polls. Journalists have noted that his crowds during the first two weeks of January were small, leading some to conclude that the mayor’s presidential race may be over even before it…

Shifting Standards of Victory

January 20, 2008 · 3:48 PM EST

With less than a handful of states under our belt in the presidential race, it’s time for both the candidates’ campaigns and the media to agree on a uniform way of evaluating the results and determining candidate placement on the medal stands.

Post-Nevada, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns…

A Big McCain Win, But Trouble in the Weeds

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 20, 2008 · 3:46 PM EST

Sen. John McCain won a narrow victory in South Carolina on Saturday, but the final results and the exit poll continue to show a very fractured Republican party without a single candidate who has emerged as a consensus choice.

Once again the devil is in the details, and anyone who digs through…

New Print Edition: 2008 House Outlook

January 18, 2008 · 12:10 AM EST
The January 16, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. This issue is our quarterly House Outlook. We post our ratings online, but the race-by-race analysis (with districts, candidates and primary dates) is only available in the print edition.

The print…

2008 House Ratings

January 17, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

Here are our latest House ratings. Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. Democrats currently hold a 233-202 majority in the House. For our race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.

REVISED March 6:…

Romney’s Michigan Showing Adds Complexity to Evangelical Vote

January 16, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

Three states down, three different results among evangelical voters for the Republican presidential candidates.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won a plurality of evangelicals (34%) in Michigan, despite some reservations within the community about his Mormon religion. Former Arkansas Gov.…