Archive

2012 House Overview (October 7, 2011)

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2011 · 4:00 PM EDT

The political and economic landscape that will define the 2012 elections is starting to take shape, and the outlook doesn’t look good for President Barack Obama or his party.

The economy remains in bad shape, with voters increasingly dissatisfied with the president’s performance and with the…

Electoral Vote Advantage Goes to Mitt Romney

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2011 · 10:56 AM EDT

While national public opinion polls are fun to examine, the real action for handicappers, of course, is in the Electoral College.

But “generic” electoral vote projections are only of limited value because elections are ultimately about the candidates. GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Ron…

West Virginia Election More Molehill Than Mountain

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 4, 2011 · 10:46 AM EDT

After two September special election losses, Democrats are looking for a slice of good news. But what smelled like Democratic victory in West Virginia just a week ago is now far from certain, and even a win in today's gubernatorial contest shouldn't provide much solace to Democrats nationwide.

Another Boomlet for an Unknown Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 4, 2011 · 10:40 AM EDT

Like a heroin addict who needs his next needle, the national media have once again whipped themselves up into a frenzy about a noncandidate. This time, it’s Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey.

Christie, we are being told, is listening to pleas to enter the presidential race…

Barack Obama, Predictions and the Red Sox

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2011 · 9:19 AM EDT

As a handicapper who uses current circumstances to construct scenarios about the future, I know full well how unpredictable tomorrow is. In fact, I repeatedly warn readers and listeners that unexpected events can change our lives and our politics overnight.

In the political sphere, the standing…

Connecticut 5: Can Anyone Deny Donovan a Seat in Congress?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 26, 2011 · 9:17 AM EDT

If Connecticut Speaker Christopher Donovan has a tough time getting elected to Congress next year, it could tell us something about the attitude of the overall electorate in 2012.

That’s because Donovan, 57, looks to be an ideal political package for the Nutmeg State, at least in a “normal”…

Oregon 1 Special: Ducks & Beavers & a Tiger, Oh My!

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 23, 2011 · 4:00 PM EDT

Now that a second Republican represents part of New York City, maybe it’s worth considering that some “safe” Democratic seats aren’t so safe after all.

There are plenty of differences between New York’s 9th District and Oregon’s 1st District, but both seats were vacated by Democratic…

West Virginia 1: Second Verse, Same as the First?

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 23, 2011 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republican David McKinley and Democrat Mike Oliverio faced off in one of the closest House races in 2010. The two men will face off again next year in West Virginia’s 1st District, but some of the dynamics have changed.

Oliverio impressively knocked off long-time incumbent Alan Mollohan in last…

Texas Senate: Bigfoot Dewhurst

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 23, 2011 · 3:58 PM EDT

The race to replace Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has been going on for two years, but it still has a long way to go.

Hutchison said she’d give up her seat in order to focus on running for governor in 2010. She ran for governor but never resigned. Instead, Hutchison went back to the…