Just How Competitive Is the Ohio Senate Race?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 25, 2012 · 9:21 AM EDT

Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.


Texas Senate: Can Dewhurst Hit 50 Percent in Primary?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 24, 2012 · 1:56 PM EDT

A new Public Policy Polling survey confirms what I am hearing elsewhere: Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is close – but still short – of getting more than 50 percent of the vote in Texas’ May 29 Republican Senate primary, which would allow him to avoid a runoff.

The May 22-23 survey of 482 likely GOP…

How Citizens United Is Affecting Campaigns

by Stuart Rothenberg May 23, 2012 · 10:16 AM EDT

“It’s a major victory for big oil, Wall Street banks, health insurance companies and the other powerful interests that marshal their power every day in Washington to drown out the voices of everyday Americans,” President Barack Obama said in a statement after the Supreme Court’s January 2010…

Kentucky & Arkansas Primaries: Conservatives, Incumbents Cruise

May 23, 2012 · 10:15 AM EDT

Conservatives got their preferred candidates in open seat races in Tuesday’s primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky, but national Democrats weren’t as lucky. And results in both states demonstrate Democrats’ continued struggle to get elected in the South.

In the Bluegrass State, tea party favorite…

Senate Control Remains a 50/50 Matter

by Stuart Rothenberg May 18, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The big news over the past three months in the fight for the Senate undoubtedly was Maine Senator Olympia Snowe’s retirement, and even GOP partisans will tell you that surprise announcement threw a monkey wrench into their plans to take over the Senate in November.

But with signs that the…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Arizona - Michigan

May 18, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

ARIZONA – Open; Jon Kyl (R), not seeking reelection. August 28 primary.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances to play offense in this open seat, basing their hopes on a strong recruit in former U.S. Surgeon General (under George W. Bush) Richard Carmona, has a clear primary field. The…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Minnesota - Ohio

May 18, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

MINNESOTA – Amy Klobuchar (D), elected 2006 (58%). August 14 primary . 

Klobuchar is an excellent politician, very popular, and had $5.2 million in the bank on March 31. Pete Hegseth (R), executive director of Vets for Freedom, had $130,000. St. Bonifacius City Councilman Joe Arwood had $17 in…

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Pennsylvania - Wyoming

May 18, 2012 · 1:57 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA – Bob Casey (D), elected 2006 (59%).

The party-endorsed candidate, businessman Steve Welch, was knocked off in the April GOP primary by wealthy retired coal company executive Tom Smith, who pumped personal money into the race. Sen. Casey had $5.3 million in the bank on April 4 to…