State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican…

Handicapper Headache: What About Alaska?

Stuart Rothenberg September 22, 2010 · 10:05 AM EDT

Can Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was denied renomination by Alaska Republicans, win as a write-in candidate in November? Obviously, it’s a long shot, as is any write-in campaign, but is it impossible?

I start off skeptical, but I’m not sure.

For anyone who doesn’t know about Alaska politics,…

Is This an Anti-Incumbent Year? Not So Far

Nathan L. Gonzales September 21, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Countless stories and hours of cable television have been filled with analysis describing this year’s elections as tantamount to an anti-incumbent wave.

But as the primaries come to a close, it’s clear that instead of throwing the bums out, voters have let the vast majority of incumbents move…

2010 Senate Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:30 PM EDT

The GOP primary upset in Delaware obviously impacts Republican efforts to gain ten seats and win control of the Senate. But Republicans remain headed for major Senate gains, and GOP prospects in at least two states thought to be extremely competitive, Florida and Ohio, appear improved over the…

2010 House Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:26 PM EDT

Democrats believe that they have stopped the bleeding, and they believe that they see signs of a recovery. But even they don’t know whether it’s a “dead cat bounce” or a real strengthening of Democratic numbers district by district.

With the national numbers holding, the DCCC pulling some early…

2010 House Ratings (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:24 PM EDT

2010 Gubernatorial Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:22 PM EDT

As Democrats get ready to take their lumps in federal races, the outlook in governorships is no better. Races in California, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine that looked like great Democratic opportunities earlier in the cycle now appear to be heading toward the Republicans. Democrats are still…

Delaware Proves Sometimes a Win Isn’t a Win

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2010 · 10:00 AM EDT

The pattern is a familiar one.

Purist conservative challengers in GOP primaries start out as asterisks in early polls, but in the final week or two, they surge to victory, as national tea party groups pump money and energy into low-turnout primaries.

For the most part, these primary outcomes…