The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals

Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

As the electorate evolves with each election cycle because of changing demographics, there is one constant: white evangelicals. Once again, they made up one-quarter of the electorate and voted heavily for the Republican presidential nominee.

White voters, as a share of the electorate, have been on a steady descent from 88 percent in 1980 to 70 percent in the most recent election, according to exit polling. Yet the share of white evangelical voters has remained remarkably static.

After ticking up from 23 percent of the electorate in 2004 to 24 percent in 2006 and 26 percent in 2008, the share of the white evangelical vote has been unshaken at 25 percent in 2010, 26 percent in 2012, 26 percent in 2014, and 26 percent in 2016. Over that same time period, the share of white voters has dipped 7 points, apparently because of a decrease in white non-evangelicals.

Once again, white evangelicals overwhelming supported the Republican candidate for president, this time going 81 percent to 16 percent for Donald Trump. That’s the largest margin in recent memory.

White evangelicals supported GOP congressional candidates 78 percent to 20 percent in 2014, Mitt Romney 78 percent to 21 percent in 2012, Republican candidates 77 percent to 19 percent in 2010, Arizona Sen. John McCain 74 percent…

House Republicans Entrust Majority to Rogers at NRCC

Nathan L. Gonzales January 18, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

Midterm elections are supposed to be trouble for the president’s party, but House Republicans are confident that if they have a problem, John Rogers can solve it.

Rogers was born in Amsterdam, New York, a small-town about a half-hour west of Albany, but Republican friends know him best for once…

The First Time I Met Illinois Senate Candidate Barack Obama

Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

With the end of the Obama Administration approaching, I recently looked back at the notes from my two meetings with Barack Obama during his run for the United States Senate.  Obama was not well known then, and he was regarded as nothing more than a long-shot for the Democratic nomination. 

I first…

2018 Senate Overview: Opportunity vs. Responsibility

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 13, 2017 · 2:00 PM EST

It’s early. The dust has barely settled on the 2016 elections and seven new senators have been in office for less than a couple of weeks, but the 2018 midterm elections have already begun. 

Some potential candidates are already posturing for statewide bids and at least a dozen vulnerable…

2018 Senate Overview (January 13, 2017) Alabama-Maine

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 13, 2017 · 1:59 PM EST

ARIZONA - Jeff Flake (R) elected 2012 (49%). Compared to fellow Grand Canyon State Sen. John McCain, whom grassroots Republicans regard as insufficiently conservative, Flake has generally toed the conservative line, except on immigration. But because of his private clashes with Trump during the…